A new trade landscape takes shape given US tariffs

Since the end of World War II, there has never been a time when tariffs were used as an economic weapon on such a large scale and with such intensity.

According to the U.S., around 70 countries have requested negotiations, indicating that many are opting for dialogue in search of a solution.

However, the retaliatory measures announced by major partners such as China, the EU, and Canada show that some are pursuing a tougher, more confrontational approach.

Yet the unpredictability and suddenness of the Trump administration's decisions have prompted most countries to tread carefully. Rather than rushing into action, they are observing and trying to assess the future direction of U.S. policy.

Since the Cold War ended, the global embrace of the market economy has never been challenged by a trade war of this magnitude.

Combined with the unpredictability of President Trump's administration, the current situation has become especially difficult to forecast.

As such, how far this trade war might escalate – and the severity of its consequences – may be beyond anyone's ability to predict, even those directly involved.

What is clear, however, is that the global economy will not function the same way once this trade war is over.

While globalization and free trade may not 'die,' as suggested by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, they are likely to contract.

Risks are rising, and with them, the likelihood of recurring economic shocks and retaliatory measures between nations. The world economy now faces the risk of splintering into separate, disconnected production chains.

Most concerning is the prospect of a full-blown economic war between two superpowers – one that could drag smaller economies into the fray, whether they want it or not.

Eventually, like all wars, this tariff war will reach a new equilibrium. A new trade order will take shape.

Some countries may benefit from it, while others will bear heavy and unintended costs.

Even for the United States, the question remains: Can this tariff policy succeed in boosting domestic industry – like it once did in Japan, South Korea, and the so-called Asian Tigers – or will it follow the path of past failures seen in India and parts of Latin America?

And ultimately, will this lead to the formation of a new global economic order? That question remains open.

History shows that every shift in global power has been driven by changes in the economic strength between the reigning superpower and its emerging challenger.

Exactly a century ago, the United States rose to replace the British Empire as the world's leading economic power, a position it has held ever since.

In this trade war, the clash between today's two great powers is something the world cannot afford to ignore.

* The Vietnamese original of this article was authored by To Hoang, an expert in international relations.