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​A miracle happens in Alabama Senate election

​A miracle happens in Alabama Senate election

Saturday, December 16, 2017, 16:06 GMT+7

Editor's note: Dr. Terry F. Buss is a fellow of the U.S. National Academy of Public Administration. He wrote this article exclusively for Tuoi Tre News.

Democrats not only suffered when they lost the White House to Donald Trump who defeated Hillary Clinton. They also lost control of state governments.

Republicans managed to retain control of the House and Senate. Democrats were on hard times after Obama’s exit.

Watchers of politics wondered whether the Trump momentum would carry through a handful of special elections in 2017.

This would be a sign to Democrats and Republicans as to whether Trump’s mystique would lead to more seats in Congress, or whether Democrats might capture control of the Senate, if not the House.

The Senate is now controlled by Republicans at 52 to 48, making the margin very thin, where every vote counts.

Democrat candidate Doug Jones barely beat Republican challenger Roy Moore for Alabama’s open Senate seat. Democrats were ecstatic at the win, many Republicans were demoralized, but just as many Republicans were happy with the loss.

As with most things Trump, politics become somewhat weird and not what they seem.

What happened?

Trump appointed then-Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions to be the U.S. Attorney General in February. Sessions would have been up for reelection in November 2018.

Republican Alabama Governor Robert Bentley appointed Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange to fill Session’s seat. Strange would finish Session’s remaining term, then run for a full-term in 2018.

Two months after appointing Strange, Bentley was forced to resign over ethics and campaign finance violations. Strange, as attorney general, had investigated Bentley, which raised many eyebrows.

Bentley’s replacement, Kay Ivey, instead of waiting until 2018, called for a special election for senator. Strange would run against Roy Moore in a Republican Primary and Doug Jones would represent the Democrats.

Trump backed Strange over Moore. Strange was also backed by the Republican “establishment” most notably Mitch McConnell, Majority Leader of the U.S. Senate.

Steve Bannon, former Trump chief strategist, who was forced from the White House staff, backed Moore. Bannon is head of Breitbart News, an influential right wing, extremist website.

Bannon announced that it was his intent to defeat the Republican establishment with Strange and McConnell as targets. Bannon dislikes government, especially liberal or ineffective Republicans.

Moore handily defeated Strange, setting up an electoral contest between Moore and Jones. Bannon and his supporters were pleased with their effort against the establishment.

Moore is a highly dubious character. He was twice expelled from the Alabama Supreme Court, and has been accused of sexual harassment and child molestation—which he denies. He also holds extremist views consistent with Bannon.

A child watches the results come in at Republican U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore's election night party in Montgomery, Alabama, U.S., December 12, 2017. REUTERS
A child watches the results come in at Republican U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore's election night party in Montgomery, Alabama, U.S., December 12, 2017. REUTERS

Alabama is also a solid Republican state having elected Trump over Clinton by 28 percent points. Moore’s win and the fact that Republicans need another Republican Senator to increase their party vote by one senator placed the Republican establishment, Trump, and other Republicans in an awkward position: if they didn’t support Moore because of his views and background, they would lose a critical vote in Congress. If they do support Moore, Democrats would have a great time attacking Moore in Congress jeopardizing the 2018 elections.

Trump decided to back Moore. The Republican National Committee began funding Moore. And most of the Republican establishment was either lukewarm or at last not trying to block Moore.

Some Republicans tried unsuccessfully to get Jeff Sessions to return to his Senate seat in Alabama. Moore, if elected, could immediately face ethical inquiries by Senate committees, and possible expulsion.

Seeing this race as pivotal, Republicans and Democrats began flooding both campaigns with money, often in secret. Polls just before the vote showed that Moore was in the lead.

Amazingly, Moore lost in a very close race to Jones.

What does it all mean?

The Jones win probably does not show that Trump’s momentum had been stopped. Moore, as was the case with Hillary Clinton, was just the wrong candidate and could not win. Voters were likely to be voting against Moore rather than for Jones.

Jones is a progressive politician in a very conservative state. He may have won, but he will face conservative voters likely to be voting for a qualified conservative Republican candidate.

Republicans, though, are notorious, for picking very unqualified candidates who either lose or are an embarrassment when elected.

In any case, if Jones wants to be reelected in 2018, he likely cannot lean too far to the left. This may be a difficult thing to pull off.

Jones’ win may spell a huge setback for Bannon’s program to destroy the Republican establishment. Voters were clearly turned off by Moore.

Trump emerges only a little wounded by the experience. He originally supported Strange who for many pundits would have won Alabama in the contest with Jones.

McConnell and the Republican establishment also dodged a big problem. They would have been forced to defend Moore. Recall that the Congress is in the midst of numerous sexual harassment and assault scandals, and Republicans do not want to be accused of being soft on offenders.

I believe that Republicans, if they choose good candidates for 2018, and keep their campaign promises and enact policies favored by voters, then they will retain or expand control of Congress.

Of course, the fly in the ointment as always remains Trump. He is involved in various scandals and policy issues which could rapidly turnaround Republican fortunes.

Terry F. Buss

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