As U.S. President Donald Trump's new trade tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada kick off, sparking another trade war, countries in Asia's complex and integrated global supply chain are in the crosshairs.
The following graphics illustrate Asia's exposure to U.S. tariffs on China and the escalating trade war, which is set to impact exports and growth in the region.
Vietnam, Taiwan, and Thailand are the most exposed to increased U.S. tariffs due to their high export-to-GDP ratios with the United States.
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Asian countries' exports to the US as % of GDP |
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Asian countries U.S. and China exports as percentage of total exports (in %) |
With Trump proposing tariffs targeting sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, steel, and aluminium, Nomura expects over a quarter of exports from South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan could be affected.
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Shows the breakdown of U.S.-bound exports by product category as a percentage of total exports to the U.S. |
Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand are more tied to North American supply chains, making them vulnerable to U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
In Malaysia, 0.59 percent of GDP is tied to trade that adds value to Canadian and Mexican exports to the U.S., the highest share among Asian economies, data shows.
Meanwhile, Taiwan and Vietnam are more exposed to China’s exports to the U.S., meaning they could be heavily impacted by U.S.-China trade tensions.
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Shows Asia's value-added exposure |
While Trump's tariffs target the three countries to address trade imbalances, nations with the highest trade surpluses with the U.S. are also seen as at risk of further tariffs.
In Asia, China, Vietnam, Japan, and Taiwan have the largest trade surpluses with the U.S., according to a recent U.S. Treasury report.
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Shows Goods and services trade surplus with the U.S. |
Some Asian economies also face risks from reciprocal tariffs, as President Trump directs plans for counter-tariffs on countries that impose higher tariffs on U.S. imports than those that the United States levies.
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Shows Asian countries' tariff rate differentials with the U.S. |