Editor’s Note: Dr. Terry F. Buss is a Fellow at the U.S. National Academy of Public Administration. He wrote this op-ed exclusively for Tuoi Tre News.

In his 2008 presidential campaign, President Barack Obama promised to improve diplomatic relations with Cuba and eliminate a 50 year long embargo.

On Wednesday, Obama proclaimed that he was now going to reverse the failed U.S. foreign policy toward Cuba.

Why, after nearly six years as president with about two years remaining in office and after a devastating loss of an election for his Democratic Party in November, has Obama concluded that now is the time to build ties with Cuba?

The short answer: Obama is pursuing political ambitions in the U.S., rather than developing a sound policy on Cuba.

Cuban economy in distress

The Cuban economy is in distress. Many observers blame the U.S. embargo for Cuba’s decline. But the U.S. is the only country that has boycotted Cuba. The UK, Canada, EU, Brazil and others all trade with Cuba.

Many believe that the decline in oil prices is partially at fault: for the past few years, under the Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Madura regimes, Venezuela has supplied Cuba with 100,000 barrels of oil daily in exchange for medical assistance. Venezuela is expected to discontinue this policy as its economy is faltering.

Ironically, the U.S. is actually one of Cuba’s leading exporters in spite of the embargo. The U.S. sells food to Cuba at about $400 million annually, and has done so for years. Cuba’s agricultural sector collapsed in 2001, so it must import food from abroad.

Similarly, Cuba relied increasingly on service industries, while losing its manufacturing sector in the process. But services are unable to generate sufficient export revenue.

The second leading source of export revenues, after that of tourism, is remittances from Cuban-Americans who send nearly $2 billion annually to the country, making it highly dependent.

Cuba has tried to reform and liberalize its economic model over the last few years. Building a private sector and reducing the number of state-owned firms have been ongoing, but Cuba is considerably behind schedule. Economic decline continues.

Cuba with its 11-million population and a GDP of $62 billion is small: a population the size of the U.S. state of Ohio and an economy one-half that of the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico.

The Obama Administration’s critics wonder why it would throw a lifeline to such a country.

Lack of support

The Obama Administration launched the Cuba initiative without support or consultation from Congress, causing some to question its motives. Obama announced the Cuban policy Wednesday at a surprise news conference, which caught even his own Democratic Party off guard.

Congress must pass laws necessary to remove the Cuban embargo and to normalize some diplomatic relations and trade. Obama, however, may try to bypass Congress as he did numerous times in the past. This would create even more gridlock in American government, and potentially negate the spirit of this policy.

Obama, after six years in office, chose to publicize his Cuban policy after the mid-term congressional elections this November. He had also waited until after the elections to announce his controversial policy granting amnesty to 5 million illegal aliens from Latin America. Why? The Democratic Party suffered record losses in the House and the Senate, losing control of both.  Obama waited so he could minimize the damage of his immigration and Cuban policies to Democratic Party candidates.

Many observers believe the new Congress taking office in January 2015 will be opposed to the Administration’s policy. The new leaders of the House, John Boehner; Senate, Mitch McConnell; and Marco Rubio of the sub-committee on the Western Hemisphere have publicly indicated that they will not support the Cuban policy and will try to unravel it.

Rubio is a leading candidate for president on the Republican Party side. He happens to be a Cuban-American and adamantly opposed to the Castro regime.

Obama’s Republican Party opposition believes that he announced the Cuban policy so he could embarrass them into taking action against it when they take office in January, something that would drive more voters to the Democratic Party for the 2016 presidential elections. Also, Obama’s move has been positively greeted by other countries, as well as the UN, something that will add to the pressure on the opposition. Even the Vatican was crucial in brokering this deal.

The ultimate irony here is that Obama controlled the Congress in 2008-2010, and could have passed the necessary laws lifting the embargo without much opposition.

A hidden agenda

Critics question the way in which the policy was negotiated with Cuba. The U.S. State Department did not negotiate the Cuban policy. Rather, an Obama speech writer, Benjamin Rhodes, undertook the 18 month-long negotiations. Many believe that Obama wanted the negotiations to be kept secret, even from his own State Department, so that they would not be made public before the elections.

Critics point out that there is no documentation or comment about what the Obama Administration expects from Cuba in exchange for lifting the embargo and establishing diplomatic relations. 

Decline in Cuban lobby & increased votes for Democrats

Over the past 50 years, Cuban civil society groups, politicians and Cuban-Americans, mostly located in Southern Florida, have successfully lobbied to keep the last 10 U.S. presidents from lifting the embargo. These groups were comprised of people who Fidel Castro had exiled from Cuba following the 1959 revolution.

This lobby’s power in Washington has greatly decreased in recent years. Over time, newer waves of refugees from Cuba to the U.S. and children born in the U.S. to Cuban parents have been much less concerned about Castro’s Cuba. One-third of the 2 million Cubans in Florida arrived there in 1995.

Additionally, these younger Cubans tend to support the Democratic Party, while the original refugees were strongly Republican. So, Obama may view his Cuban policy as possibly attracting more Democratic Party supporters for the 2016 presidential elections. Florida in the past was a critical state in electing a president and Congress.

U.S. pivot to Latin America

The Administration suggests that the Cuban policy is a way to reengage with Latin American countries feeling shunned by the U.S. that remains entangled in the Middle East and is trying to pivot to Asia. Other Latin American countries are in conflict with the U.S.: Venezuela is leading a coalition to weaken U.S. power, Argentina’s government is in default, Bolivia has pushed out U.S. businesses, and Ecuador is protecting Julian Assange who leaked U.S. foreign policy documents through Wikileaks, to name a few.

Latin American countries on the whole want Cuba reintegrated into regional community rather than being ostracized as was U.S. policy. The Administration sees the reintegration of Cuba as a show of good will toward the Latin America.

A pivot to Latin America might be plausible, say critics, except that the Administration has had no Latin American strategy for the past six years. The Administration has not even addressed the fact that China is becoming the biggest investor and trading partner in Latin America.

Russia in Cuba

The Administration’s normalization policy for Cuba is a way to push back against a renewed presence of Russia in the Western Hemisphere. In May, Russia announced that it had signed an intelligence sharing and military cooperation agreement with Cuba. Russia has suggested that it wants to use Cuba as a base for surveillance flights in the Caribbean.

Critics suggest that if the Cuban policy is intended to lure Cuban away from Russia, it may be a little late.

Need for a serious Cuban policy

Critics have concluded that the Administration’s Cuban restart policy is likely to be highly contentious. Rather than building a partnership that would greatly benefit both Cuba and the U.S., the Administration appears to have opted for short-term political gains.

In my view, the real irony here is that many Americans and Cubans would really like to see cooperation. After all, Cuba is only 90 miles from the U.S., and millions of families in both countries are divided by politics. 50 years of antagonism seems long enough. It seems a shame that such an important policy has been pursued in this way.