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ADB lifts Vietnam’s 2019 growth forecast to 6.9 percent

Thursday, December 12, 2019, 14:39 GMT+7
ADB lifts Vietnam’s 2019 growth forecast to 6.9 percent
Experts attend the launch of the Asian Development Outlook report on April 3, 2019. Photo: Tuoi Tre

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) increased its growth projections for Vietnam by 0.1 percentage point, bringing its estimates to 6.9 and 6.8 percent in 2019 and 2020, respectively, according to a report released earlier this month.

ADB’s new predictions were an upgrade to the numbers it had previously unveiled in the September edition of its Asian Development Outlook Supplement, attributing the 0.1 percentage point jump to unexpectedly strong outturns driven by exports.

The report also noted that Vietnam’s GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2019 accelerated to seven percent, its highest rate for the period in nine years.

Private consumption from Q1 to Q3 rose by 7.3 percent, while investment expanded by 7.7 percent thanks to a steadily improving business environment, continued investor confidence, and increased foreign direct investment.

With unexpectedly strong growth momentum in Q3 likely to carry into Q4 and on to 2020, ADB adjusted its growth forecast for Vietnam from 6.8 percent to 6.9 percent for 2019, and from 6.7 percent to 6.8 percent for 2020.

Despite the positive growth outlook, the bank continued to stand by its inflation forecast for the country – predicting inflation rates of three percent and 3.5 percent in 2019 and 2020, respectively.

As a whole, ADB forecast that growth in Asia will keep growing at moderate levels as domestic investment weakens under a more challenging external environment, given slowing global trade and economic activity, protracted trade tensions between the United States and China, and a global downturn in electronics.

The regional gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to expand by 5.2 percent in both 2019 and 2020 – a downgrade of the figures published in September’s Asian Development Outlook 2019.

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