Amid recent trade moves by major global economies seeing tariffs imposed on each other, Vietnam’s wood industry is facing significant hurdles due to reciprocal tariffs, while Vietnamese seafood and fruit exporters are poised to take advantage of emerging opportunities in the global market.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s new 25-percent tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect on Tuesday, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20 percent, escalating the ongoing trade tensions. 

Besides, President Trump announced a plan to introduce new tariffs on agricultural imports starting in early April.

Potential opportunities for Vietnamese enterprises

Vietnam, an open economy with a heavy reliance on exports, especially to the U.S., which accounts for about 30 percent of the former's export turnover, faces both challenges and opportunities due to new global tariff imposition.

One potential advantage for Vietnamese firms lies in the possible shift of supply chains.

Analysts believe that U.S. tariffs on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico may encourage companies to shift production to Southeast Asian countries, with Vietnam standing out as a prime destination thanks to its favorable geographical location, abundant labor, and active participation in multiple trade agreements.

Such industries as textile, leather, footwear, electronics, and furniture could see an influx of foreign direct investment.

In addition, businesses in Vietnam with the capacity to supply goods could fill the gap left by tariff-affected Chinese and Mexican exporters.

For example, the U.S. is a major market for Vietnam in the seafood sector. If prices of goods from other countries rise because of new tariffs, Vietnam could capture a larger share of the U.S. market.

Vietnam’s agricultural products may benefit

Vietnam’s agricultural exports, including coffee and cashews, face less direct competition from Canada and Mexico, but the country may still benefit from the demand for alternative suppliers.

In 2024, Vietnam’s fruit exports reached over US$7.1 billion, with the U.S. being the second-largest buyer and representing about 4.5 percent of its total export value.

According to Nguyen Dinh Tung, CEO of Vina T&T Co., Ltd., tariff rates on various Vietnamese fruits vary, though they are generally not too high. 

However, frozen durian, categorized as a deep-processed product, is subject to a tariff of around 16 percent.

Some Vietnamese agricultural products such as pomelo and lychee could potentially benefit if China finds it difficult to export to the U.S. owing to the new tariffs, with U.S. importers able to seek alternatives from Vietnam.

Vina T&T has set a target of 15-percent growth in 2025, focusing on boosting exports, particularly frozen durians to China, passion fruits to the U.S., lychees to South Korea, and longans to Japan.

Vietnam’s seafood sector may expand

Vietnam's seafood industry, particularly catfish and shrimp, is expected to benefit from rising demand in the U.S. following additional tariffs on Chinese goods. 

For instance, tilapia, a popular white fish in the U.S., currently relies heavily on Chinese imports, with over half of the supply coming from China.

According to KB Securities Vietnam JSC (KBSV), catfish exports could see modest growth in both quantity and price. 

Over the past two years, U.S. imports of catfish have surpassed tilapia imports due to the stable supply, competitive prices, and stricter environmental regulations in China that have reduced the availability of raw fish and raised production costs.

According to a recent report from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the price of Chinese tilapia has risen 15 percent over the past two years, while Vietnamese catfish prices have remained stable since late 2023, hovering around $2.5-3 per kilogram, 11 percent lower than the average price of Chinese tilapia in 2024.

KBSV forecasts that the U.S. demand for catfish will continue to rise, stabilizing in the European Union but facing challenges in China.

Wood industry faces reciprocal tariff risks

While several industries stand to benefit from the changing trade landscape, Vietnam’s wood industry could be affected by potential U.S. reciprocal tariffs.

President Trump has ordered Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to initiate a national security investigation into U.S. lumber imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. 

The trade law is the one he also used to impose tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports.

A representative from a wood firm told Tuoi Tre (Youth) newspaper that if the U.S. imposes reciprocal tariffs on wooden products, the impact could be substantial for Vietnamese exporters.

The imposition of such tariffs could harm not only Vietnamese businesses but also U.S. companies, while American consumers would have to pay higher prices for wooden products.

Currently, Vietnamese wood firms are awaiting further details from the Vietnamese trade representative office in the U.S. to determine whether the probe will encompass only roundwood and lumber or if it will extend to woodwork as well.

On Tuesday, the U.S. levied an extra 10-percent tariff on a range of Chinese goods, including textiles, electrical equipment, semiconductors, and clean energy devices.

In retaliation, China is set to impose additional tariffs of 10-15 percent on U.S. imports, starting March 10, with soybeans, corn, beef, pork, seafood, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products subject to an extra 10-percent tax.

Meanwhile, an additional 15-percent duty will be slapped on U.S. chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton.

Following the announcement of the U.S. imposition of a 25-percent tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, Ottawa responded immediately, hitting back with 25-percent tariffs on U.S. imports.

Canada, Mexico, and China together account for over 40 percent of U.S. imports and exports, supplying a large portion of crude oil, beer, copper wire, toilet paper, hot-rolled steel, cucumbers, and chocolate.

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