Vietnam has set a gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of 7-7.5 percent in 2025, which would elevate the size of its economy to the top 33 in the world. 

Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung announced the target while delivering a report at a National Assembly session on Wednesday. 

The report summarized the country’s economic performance and laid out the socio-economic development plan for 2025.

Along with boosting GDP expansion to 7.5 percent, the country expects to grow the economy to US$500 billion and raise per capita income to about $4,900, the minister said.

Comparatively, Vietnam’s per capita income in 2023 was just $4,284 while its GDP stood at $430 billion in 2023, up 5.5 percent from 2022, according to data from the General Office of Statistics.  

In its recent report titled 'Asian Economics Quarterly – Comin’ for a Landing,” UK-based HSBC forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth for both 2024 and 2025 at 6.5 percent.

Still, other experts assessed the country’s 2025 GDP target of 7.5 percent as feasible, provided that the government maintains and implements current growth support policies and measures, including boosting public investment, aiding the development of the private sector, and promoting exports to major markets such as the U.S. and EU countries.  

Under these circumstances, alongside the fruition of optimistic projects for the global economy, Vietnam’s desired GDP expansion rate and economic growth relative to the rest of the world is achievable, according to Do Thien Anh Tuan, a lecturer at Fulbright University Vietnam.

It is also crucial that Vietnam achieve high economic growth in 2025 to offset the previous declines in GDP growth due to the COVID-19 pandemic so that the country can realize its overall socio-economic development plan for 2021-25, Tuan commented.

He also expressed optimism about the Southeast Asian country’s export prospects, noting that the U.S. – Vietnam's largest export market – has decreased its inflation rates and been able to recover some of its purchasing power. 

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut its key lending rate by 0.5 percentage points to a range of 4.75-5 percent is expected to create new momentum for consumer demand in the world's largest economy, thereby opening up opportunities for Vietnam to boost exports next year, Tuan said.

Still, Tuan underscored the need to raise public investment disbursement in order to help spur economic growth.

According to Dinh Tuan Minh, research director of the Center for Research on Market Solutions for Socio-Economic Issues, Vietnam has a highly open economy, so its GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 2025 depends heavily on the recovery of the U.S. economy, the biggest buyer of Vietnamese goods.

Minh said that the Fed’s interest rate cut is helping the U.S. economy achieve a soft landing while continuing to grow, which has driven up consumer demand and increased imports, creating favorable conditions for Vietnam to boost exports and meet its projected economic growth targets for 2025.

Tran Duc Anh, head of macro and market strategy at KB Securities Vietnam, commented that Vietnam's economy will likely maintain a positive trajectory next year thanks to favorable macroeconomic conditions.

Given that the pressure of foreign exchange and inflation is no longer a concern, combined with the easing of policies by central banks around the world, the State Bank of Vietnam will have more room to keep low interest rates to support economic recovery.

“If low interest rates are maintained, domestic consumption demand may recover and thus support growth," Anh remarked.

“Recently, the government has launched a number of stimulus initiatives, such as reducing VAT.

"These measures have been somewhat effective, but they haven’t been enough to create a significant breakthrough."

Economists have noted other positive signals for Vietnam’s economic prospects in 2025, such as the rise of private investment in alignment with the government's recently strengthened infrastructure investment efforts, helping to reduce business costs for enterprises.

In addition, consumption in 2025 is forecast to surge as a result of positive economic growth in 2024.

Many experts also advised that the government should continue improving the business environment, reducing interest rates, and effectively enforcing the Land Law to remove roadblocks for infrastructure development in order to push growth.

Tran Ngoc Bau, general director of Ho Chi Minh City-based WiGroup Corporation, a data provider, said the main growth driver in 2025 will still come from foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports. 

Bau said that one of the brightest spots in Vietnam’s economy this year is its success in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI).

Total registered FDI surged in the first nine months, and disbursed FDI saw the highest year-on-year climb in the past five years.

“A study published in 2023 showed that a one-percent jump in total private investment or FDI investment will push economic expansion by 0.03-0.04 percentage points when all other factors remain unchanged,” he said.

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