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Singaporean bank forecasts 6% GDP growth for Vietnam in Q2

Singaporean bank forecasts 6% GDP growth for Vietnam in Q2

Wednesday, June 12, 2024, 15:17 GMT+7
Singaporean bank forecasts 6% GDP growth for Vietnam in Q2
Workers process seafood for export at a factory in Vietnam. Photo: Thao Thuong / Tuoi Tre

Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter will likely grow six percent year on year, with encouraging performance recorded in industrial production, export, and foreign direct investment (FDI) over the past five months, Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) has forecast. 

In its latest report announced recently, UOB expected a six percent growth rate for Vietnam's GDP for both the second quarter and the whole year.

The projected rate is slightly higher than the 5.66-percent GDP expansion the country achieved in the first quarter. 

The optimistic forecast was based on the analysis and evaluation of the national economic data for the first five months announced by the General Office of Statistics of Vietnam.

The index of industrial production (IIP) in May was estimated to increase 3.9 percent over the previous month and 8.9 percent compared to the same month in 2023.

In January-May, the IIP went up 6.8 percent from a year ago.    

Vietnam’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained unchanged at 50.3 last month, marking the second consecutive month of increase in factory activity amid solid growth in new orders and faster expansion in production, according to the latest report by S&P Global, a U.S.-based financial information and analytics company.

Export turnover in May was estimated at US$32.81, up 5.7 percent from April and 15.8 percent from a year earlier, registering the third straight month of double-digit growth.   

Over the January-May period, the total export earnings grew 15.2 percent year on year to $156.77 billion, of which $113.08 billion came from the foreign-invested sector and $43.69 billion from the domestic sector.

Between the beginning of this year and May 20, Vietnam attracted a total of $11.07 billion in registered foreign direct investment (FDI). This figure represents a two-percent increase compared to the previous year.

The realized FDI reached $8.25 billion, showing a 7.8-percent year-on-year expansion rate and marking the highest January-May figure since 2020.

Goods and consumer service revenue was recorded at VND2.58 quadrillion ($101.4 billion) in the same period, posting a rise of 8.7 percent from the same period last year.

The country welcomed nearly 1.4 million international visitors in May, marking a 51-percent climb compared to the same period last year.  

For the January-May period, the total number of foreign travelers to Vietnam stood at 7.6 million, representing a year-on-year jump of nearly 65 percent and a 3.9-percent surge compared to the pre-COVID-19 period in 2019.

UOB assessed that while external risks continue to weigh on the outlook of the global economy, Vietnam's economic prospects are supported by the recovery of semiconductor chip demand in the world, the stable economic growth in China and the region, and the ongoing shift of global supply chains.

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Vinh Tho / Tuoi Tre News

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