Vietnamese billionaire Tran Dinh Long's family, owners of Hoa Phat Group, Vietnam's largest steel producer, has lost about US$98.3 million due to a sharp stock decline after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a 25-percent tariff would be imposed on steel and aluminum imports.

On February 9, President Trump stated he would officially announce the new tariffs on February 10.

While the exact implementation date remains unclear, the announcement has raised concerns among Vietnamese manufacturers about potential adverse effects.

In response, the Vietnamese stock market experienced significant volatility during its first trading session of the week on Monday.

Steel-related stocks came under heavy selling pressure, with Hoa Phat Group’s (HPG) share price dropping 4.7 percent to VND25,400 per share (nearly $1) – the lowest in five months.

As a result, Hoa Phat Group’s market capitalization fell by over VND8 trillion ($314.5 million) to approximately VND162 trillion ($6.37 billion).

With Long’s family holding 2.23 billion shares – the largest portion of the group’s shares – the value of their holdings declined by nearly VND2.5 trillion ($98.25 million).

Despite the price drop, HPG trading volume surged, with more than 61 million shares exchanged on Monday – four times the average daily volume of the past quarter.

Notably, during the at-the-close session, an investor placed a sell order for over eight million HPG shares, accounting for more than 13 percent of the day's total trading volume in the final 15 minutes.

According to data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs and the Vietnam Steel Association, the U.S. market typically makes up 9-13 percent of Vietnam’s steel exports.

Companies with significant exposure to the U.S., such as Ton Dong A Corporation and Nam Kim Steel JSC, also saw their stock prices fall by nearly 4-5 percent at the start of the week.

However, analysts from various securities firms suggest that the direct impact of the 25-percent U.S. tariff on Hoa Phat may be limited, as exports represent only 30 percent of the company’s total revenue, with the U.S. accounting for just 5-10 percent of that figure.

Nevertheless, indirect effects should be expected, particularly if key clients such as Hoa Sen Group and Nam Kim Steel JSC – both major consumers of Hoa Phat’s hot-rolled coil (HRC) and significant exporters to the U.S. – struggle under the new tariff.

Experts also warn that as one of the world’s largest steel importers, the U.S.’s 25-percent tariff could dampen overall demand, potentially influencing global steel prices.

Ho Chi Minh City-based ACB Securities Company (ACBS) has projected that Hoa Phat would achieve revenue of around VND182.9 trillion ($7.18 billion) and a post-tax profit of VND14.84 trillion ($583.5 million) in 2025.

The primary driver of this growth is the expected increase in HRC production capacity, thanks to the Hoa Phat Dung Quat 2 Cast Iron and Steel Production Complex, set to commence operations in the first quarter of 2025.

ACBS forecasts an HRC output of five million metric tons from the complex this year, corresponding to a capacity utilization rate of 85 percent.

Additionally, the Trade Remedies Authority of Vietnam, under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, is investigating an anti-dumping lawsuit filed by some domestic companies against HRC imports from China and India.

If an anti-dumping tax is imposed, it could provide significant support for domestic HRC prices.

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