Editor’s note:  Dr. Terry F. Buss, a fellow at the U.S. National Academy of Public Administration, discusses in this fifth story of the series efforts that are underway to form a third party as an alternative to run against Donald Trump and  Hillary Clinton.

>> Part 1: What politicians, American people think about Trump

>> Part 2: Why Republican establishment, Democrats may support Trump

>> Part 3: Looking into Trump’s policy stew, tactical skills

>> Part 4: Charismatic leadership

Third parties are formed when voters in the Republican or Democratic parties become so disenchanted with those party candidates and leaders that they form their own party.

The third party candidates do not expect to win, but they hope to damage their former party.

Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton are so controversial that many in their own parties are calling for third party candidates to run against them in the U.S. presidential election in November 2016.

What are the third party options against Trump and Clinton, and how successful have they been in the past?

Trump and Clinton potential competition

Three efforts to form an alternative to Trump are underway. Mitt Romney, a failed candidate against Barack Obama in 2012, is a billionaire who is attempting to find someone to form a third party. Thus far, he has been unsuccessful, but nonetheless has caused a lot of instability. He will likely not succeed, as most potential candidates do not want to tarnish their reputations.

A second effort by Bill Kristol, the son of one of the founders of modern conservatism and editor of the highly influential Weekly Standard magazine, has also tried to counter Trump. He too is having difficulty, but is creating negative impressions of Trump. He will not likely be successful, again because no one wants to risk their reputation.

A third effort which could be successful is the Libertarian Party led by Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico and Bill Weld, former governor of Massachusetts, both former Republicans. Libertarians are in favor of freedom and small government. In 2012, the party attracted 1 percent of the vote. In that election, they were not trying to cause from problems for the Republican Party.

Disaffected voters in the Republican Party are trying to unite with Libertarians. Were this to happen, Trump would have major problems winning the November election. For this to occur, Libertarians would have to modify their policies, something they rarely are willing to do. Extreme pressure is likely to be placed upon them to cooperate.

Bernie Sanders is a senator running against Hillary in the Democratic Party primary elections. Sanders is a declared socialist who is successfully challenging Clinton. Sanders has won 20 states thus far in the Democratic primary elections and has attracted millions of supporters.

Sanders is an unlikely threat to break away from the Democrat Party and launch his own effort, although many supporters would like him to do so.  Instead, he is attacking Clinton in an attempt to win concessions on policies Sanders preferred. One movement is trying to make Sanders Clinton’s vice president so that he can influence policy should she win. Sanders is succeeding in transforming the Democratic Party by moving it to the far left.

Libertarian Party presidential candidate Gary Johnson talks to the media after receiving the nomination during the National Convention held at the Rosen Center in Orlando, Florida, May 29, 2016. Photo: Reuters

What about past efforts?

The 2016 elections have proven to be the most controversial in U.S. history. So even though the probability that a third party will form is low, it has happened many times in the past.

George Wallace was a southern Democratic Party governor of Alabama famous for opposing the civil rights movement throughout the 1960s. In 1968, he broke away from the Democrats with a third party, the American Independent Party, that won 13 percent of the vote with 10 million voters. He lost several elections but came close to unraveling the Democrats.

Ralph Nader is an environmental activist and antagonist of the Democratic Party. In 2000, he broke away from the Democrats and started his Green Party. He was able to win a large number of votes in New Hampshire and Florida. These wins took enough votes away from the Democratic Party nominee Al Gore to cause him to lose to George W. Bush.

Pat Buchanan, former official in the Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford presidencies and noted newspaper commentator, challenged George W. H. Bush for the Republican Party nomination in 1992. He lost in 1992 and again in 1996. He started the Reform Party in 1998 trying to take on George W. Bush. He was ineffective.

Ross Perot, a billionaire business person, ran as an independent against George H. W. Bush in 1992. In that race, he was ahead of both Bush and Bill Clinton. Mysteriously, Perot dropped out of the race then a few weeks later reappeared. Perot likely cost George H.W. Bush the election in 1992, allowing Bill Clinton to win.

Conclusion

Some third party candidates have cost their opposition the presidency, all have created major headaches for candidates who must spend resources trying to neutralize them. Importantly, no third party has ever won the US presidency.

Interestingly, American elections are now attracting billionaires who are not easily controlled by traditional parties.  Perot, Romney (recently), and Trump were all renegades in the Republican Party. In the future, the US electoral system may become even more unfavorable as money influences electoral outcomes.

Look to June as the key month in incubating a third party challenge to the Republicans and Democrats.

Like us on Facebook or follow us on Twitter to get the latest news about Vietnam!